Pakistan's Power Generation Capacity Set to Reach 44,626 MW by June 2026

Pakistan's total installed electricity generation capacity is projected to reach 44,626 MW by end-June 2026, with 2,800 MW of new generation expected to be added during financial year 2025-26. Of that addition, a striking 2,633 MW — roughly 94 percent of all new capacity — is attributed to solar net metering, underscoring a decisive shift toward distributed rooftop solar as the dominant source of new generation in the country.

FY 2025-26 Capacity Additions at a Glance

The projected 2,800 MW addition to the national grid encompasses both centralised generation projects and distributed solar installations connected via net metering. The contribution breakdown highlights an unmistakable trend:

• Solar net metering: 2,633 MW (approximately 94 percent of all new additions)
• Other sources (conventional and renewable projects): approximately 167 MW

These figures reflect a surge in rooftop and commercial solar installations across Pakistan as consumers respond to persistently high grid tariffs and recurring load shedding by generating their own electricity rather than waiting for utility-scale projects to come online.

Why Solar Net Metering Is Leading the Charge

Solar net metering allows electricity consumers — households, commercial establishments, and industrial units — to install solar panels, feed surplus power back into the distribution network, and receive credit on their electricity bills. Under rules set by NEPRA (the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority) and administered by distribution companies (DISCOs) including LESCO, MEPCO, IESCO, FESCO, GEPCO, PESCO, HESCO, QESCO, TESCO, and K-Electric, consumers can offset their grid consumption unit-for-unit against solar exports.

The rapid adoption seen in FY 2025-26 has been driven by several converging forces: sharply falling solar panel import prices — largely a result of Chinese manufacturing overcapacity — grid electricity tariffs that now regularly exceed Rs. 50 per unit for upper-slab consumers, and a growing appreciation of system payback periods shrinking to three to five years. For many urban and peri-urban households in Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Faisalabad, and Multan, net metering has become the most practical financial hedge against both tariff escalation and extended outage hours.

Installed Capacity vs. Available Generation

It is important to distinguish between installed capacity and actual available generation. Pakistan has historically reported significant excess installed capacity while still experiencing acute load shedding, driven by circular debt — the chain of unpaid dues owed by DISCOs to independent power producers (IPPs) — alongside fuel shortages and transmission bottlenecks. A headline figure of 44,626 MW does not automatically translate into uninterrupted supply; the financial health of the sector and grid infrastructure remain equally critical variables.

Net metering capacity is also distributed and weather-dependent. Its output peaks during daylight hours and in summer months, providing welcome relief precisely when air-conditioning demand is highest — but it cannot substitute for baseload or evening-peak generation. The sector's structural challenges, including circular debt management and DISCO operational losses, will continue to shape actual supply reliability regardless of installed capacity milestones.